The MLB postseason is approaching, and the Yankees currently hold the top seed in the American League. New York seemingly has World Series hopes every year, but they continue to fall short. New York’s regular season success and postseason shortcomings begin and end with their superstar, Aaron Judge, who MLB experts say is the best player in baseball.
Judge is on pace to break the single-season American League home run record (62), a record he set back in 2022. 63+ home runs would be an astounding accomplishment, but Judge needs to swing a hot bat in October because championships hold more gravitas than home run records in the Big Apple.
Judge is a .211 hitter in the potseason and a .288 hitter in the regular season. He plays at a little league field called Yankee Stadium, where the left and right field walls are 318 and 314 feet from home plate, respectively, which begs the question: When will Judge carry his regular season power into October, especially when the Yankees have home-field advantage quite often?
Let’s take a guy like David Ortiz. Ortiz played in Boston, where the right field wall measures 302 feet from home plate and the left field wall 310 feet. Ortiz hit .289 in the postseason, consistent with his .286 career average, while Judge falls off in the postseason despite playing in a park with a short porch in both left and right field. Judge also does not have to hit over a 37-foot “Green Monster.” Nevertheless, Judge has three postseason stints where his average fell below .190. In two of those seasons, his average fell below .140 (2020 and 2022).
Interestingly, two of his three worst postseasons followed two of his best regular seasons. In the 2017 regular season, for example, Judge hit .284/.422/.627 with 52 home runs and 114 RBIs. However, those numbers plummeted to .188/.316/.500 in the postseason. In 48 at-bats, Judge struck out 27 times, per baseball-reference.com.
In 2022, Judge hit 311/.425/.686 with a career-best 1.111 OPS, 62 home runs, and 131 RBIs. In the postseason, he fell once again to .139/.184/.306 with a .490 OPS. In 26 at-bats, Judge struck out 15 times, per baseball-reference.com.
Judge’s strikeout percentage increases by 5.5% in the postseason, rising from 28% in the regular season to 33.5% in the playoffs.
Let’s compare Judge to a current player like Bryce Harper, who I prefer over Judge, especially in October. Harper’s career postseason strikeout percentage is just 0.5% higher than in the regular season. Harper hits .280/.389/.521 with a .910 OPS in the regular season and 276/.383/.613 with a .996 OPS in the postseason. He is an all-time clutch postseason performer who produces timely, goosebump-inducing home runs when his team needs him the most. Perhaps his most memorable long ball was the two-run, go-ahead rocket in 2022 that flew over the left-center field wall at Citizens Bank Park to send Philadelphia to the World Series. That year, Harper recorded more strikeouts than any other postseason stretch of his career, with just 14 in 71 plate appearances. In 197 career playoff plate appearances, Aaron Judge has 66 strikeouts, while Harper, in 215 plate appearances, has just 48.
Judge's regular-season prowess is undeniable. However, as the Yankees gear up for another postseason, all eyes are on him. The playoffs demand both elevated performance and timely execution, and so far, Judge has fallen far short of his 6’7” stature.
Can Judge get the Yankees over the hump this year?
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